The Great Reset: An explainer

Pendulum at extreme in favour of Capital

After walking amongst humanity for a while, cycles beyond the seasons or clothing and hairstyles become noticeable.

These cycles are noticeable also in political beliefs, and although that can seem boring to understand, it’s important because the political system affects all of us.

Perhaps the most important political cycle that affects everyone is the balance of power between those who have a lot of resources or ‘capital’ – that is the wealthy and privileged within society – and those who have few resources beyond their own natural attributes – that being their unique combination of intelligence and physical abilities – which they trade as ‘labour’ to employers.

In our modern capitalist societies the balance between various groups is arbitrated by our democratic rights to share our views freely and vote based on them.

In my lifetime over the past half century that cycle between capital and labour has swung from one extreme to the other as if we were on a widely swinging pendulum. When I was young the balance was in favour of labour, the majority of people, as trade unions had significant support and power within the political system.

It was a time of many strikes, high inflation and poor economic growth as priority was given to providing good incomes to the majority of people. In truth the system was not very efficient and it became unsustainable.

But from the 70s the pendulum swung back and a lot of necessary reforms happened. It’s important to note that these changes were agreed and often enacted by centre-left governments as well, which occurred in my own country of Australia.

Unfortunately humanity has not really worked out how to know in real-time when we have reached the point when too much of something is a bad thing because the balance has shifted too far.

By the time we entered the new century the balance between capital and labour had shifted too far and the signs that we had reached a form of Extreme Capitalism were showing, especially in the extreme level of inequality even in the most prosperous societies.

The middle class was shrinking and the working class poor were numerous and growing.

At the human level these deficiencies were mainly expressed in the impact on the mental health of people in the system where most felt that they were on a hamster wheel, sprinting and reaching out for juicy carrots but getting nowhere fast. The only thing in their hands were a few crumbs that had trickled off the table from the privileged one percent.

People were increasingly expressing their exhaustion but were feeling trapped, partly because they believed the saturation advertising that the rewards would be worth it if they just ‘hustled’ enough on their hamster wheels.

So by the end of the 2010s the system was due for a paradigm shift; the swing in the pendulum back from that extreme form of capitalism.

The unceasing drive for efficiency in the system, which led human beings to treat each other as if they were already machines, was unsustainable because it was literally breaking people.

Human beings were breaking other human beings!

Enter the COVID-19 pandemic which, in an attempt to minimise human impacts, or at least manage impacts on hospital capacities, led to isolation measures which for many forced separation from their hamster wheels.

Many still worked, either at home or onsite in essential services, which in itself highlighted for many that the rewards from this form of extreme capitalism were not tightly correlated with the importance of those roles in society.

This forced physical separation allowed a unique opportunity for reflection for everyone. It allowed psychological separation to varying extents.

While we were isolated from most others in society, for those who sheltered with others closely related to us, including family and other loved ones, it was an intense period of connectedness with those who matter most in our lives.

Right through this period we all searched for updates on the pandemic, watching the news or scrolling through social media, which served as constant reminders of the reality of human life and of sad loss experienced by so many.

It was always going to be the case that through this period many people would reflect on their lives and whether they felt that trading the majority of the quality time and energy of their lives for the rewards of the hamster wheel was really a fair trade.

Some parents and families realised that they had not been all that closely connected in recent years as the parents were on those hamster wheels convincing themselves that they are doing best for their families, and even children were kept busy with extracurricular activities almost as training for their own future hamster wheels.

Others realised that they had made compromises and moved away from their earlier aspirations and ideals.

Still others reconsidered whether the cost of earning extra income for now or later in retirement was worth the cost to them in the here and now while their health is good, especially as they understood that life expectancy was falling with this new ultramicroscopic threat which just highlighted one of the many omnipresent threats to human lives that have always existed.

With the pendulum at its extreme in favour of capital – the wealthy and privileged – our societies were due for a reset.

That it coincided with, and in many ways was catalysed by, the first global pandemic in a century meant that it would be a very significant Reset.

Given the potential for it to lead to the addressing of some of the longest lasting or most devastating issues humanity has confronted, in the form of social cohesion and in the climate crisis, optimistically from March 2020 I began to refer to this era as the Great Reset!

As I have consistently stated since the first few weeks of the pandemic, the more of us that engage with these changes and share our views and aspirations for a better humanity, the better – dare I say, the Greater – will be that Reset and the more cohesive our societies.

By working together towards compassionate societies we will reduce the oscillation of the pendulum and prevent the turbulence and heartache that the extremes cause. This will improve the quality of life for all of humanity and the space that this peace provides will allow us to address new crises from nature as they are certain to continue to arise.


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© Copyright Brett Edgerton 2022

In The Great Reset Era Successful Leaders Focus On Wellbeing And Authentic Connection

The underlying premise of what many say here at LinkedIn – especially those employed in the corporate wellness sector, either embedded in organisations or as external consultants – is that addressing wellness is good for the bottom line.

While I recognise the accuracy of this statement, I find it confronting.

Since work culture is a result of the behaviours of groups of human beings, what is really being said is that human beings should care about human beings because it is good for company profits.

While this argument might act as justification for a salary or a consultancy, from a societal perspective there is something fundamentally very wrong with that statement.

Moreover, while these measures may lead to improvements, I really do wonder at how enduring change will be when it is so correlated to monetary and market-based rewards. We all know that organisation/managerial fads are commonplace in contemporary workplaces.

I can say this because I am not driven by a profit imperative or self-interest. I simply want to play a role in helping society towards a better future by engaging and sharing my views.

That we have devolved to a society where it makes most sense for human beings to be good to each other, and within our broader interactions in the world (i.e. our impacts on the environment), if the market rewards it monetarily or in some other manner (typically related to societal status) is a consequence of the form of extreme capitalism that we have swung towards over the last half century.

This is at the heart of emotion and logic behind major changes, such as #thegreatresignation , we are seeing in this new era we have entered which I refer to as #thegreatreset .

People are tired of this world of transactional relationships as they crave authentic and deeper connection.

In the Great Reset era work-centric rhetoric and responses are seen as lacking and impotent.

Compassion is the only sustainable answer, and that is true in all settings

The irony is that those who understand and enact that in the way they live will reap the full rewards from engaging in society, including from capitalist markets as the underlying premise of the statement is correct, though they probably will not notice it since it is no longer their main goal.

For example, over many years I have closely observed one of the greatest capitalists ever in Warren Buffett and it is very clear to me that he was never driven to be powerful. Instead he was driven to excel at whatever he did, no doubt partly to provide security for he and his family, but also as a contribution to his society, and since he was especially good at capital allocation in a capitalist system he became wealthy almost as a byproduct of his passion and skill.

The short answer: if your motives are true, your actions will also be, and everything else will fall into the place it should be…

Published on 2 August 2022 on LinkedIn


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© Copyright Brett Edgerton 2022

Power Dynamic Disruptions At Work In The Great Reset Era

Anybody who wishes to monetise their ‘social’ activities on the internet knows that they should frequently remind the human beings they are engaging with of the value of those activities. In other words, they must post frequently lest their engagement metrics decline along with their potential earnings.

I said from the outset that I was not about seeking financial reward for sharing my views at MacroEdgo, even though the pandemic provided a timely opportunity to do just that given my related experience and uncanny ability to accurately forecast how the pandemic progressed which caused my readership to explode in early 2020. I recognised this opportunity, but my motivation remained true to providing a service to my community rather than seeking to profit from what was a very sad and unfortunate development for everyone.

Now I have been especially quiet in my writing this year and that is primarily because I have had to deal with some very serious personal issues. In truth these issues were present at the beginning of the pandemic, requiring a great deal of balance to pour energy into everything I needed to at that time. Then early this year, as the pandemic issues settled – note carefully, not the pandemic itself, but the rate of new issues of relevance settled considerably – and as my personal issues reached a crescendo, I needed to prioritise care for my loved ones and myself.

Now that those issues have also settled I am able to engage again with social issues that I see as critical and which I feel passionate to write about.

I continue to be more and more convinced of my views about humanity having entered the Great Reset era, and in fact I am noting how this phrase is growing in use through society, in entirety or with an alliterated R-word following ‘Great’, as in the Great Resignation, Reshuffle, Reassessment, Rethink, etc, etc.

Much of this usage to this point relates to changing power dynamics at workplaces as workers enact plans for change to balance their lives better as I foresaw early in the pandemic – this search by people for balance and purpose in their lives is, after all, one of the main underlying premises of my ‘Great Reset’ thesis.

Since career and workplace dynamics is a major focus of change, I have decided to become active on LinkedIn. Below is a recent post which was spawned from some thoughts that I shared in a comment on LinkedIn.

The underlying premise of what many say here at LinkedIn – especially those employed in the corporate wellness sector, either embedded in organisations or as external consultants – is that addressing wellness is good for the bottom line.

While I recognise the accuracy of this statement, I find it confronting.

Since work culture is a result of the behaviours of groups of human beings, what is really being said is that human beings should care about human beings because it is good for company profits.

While this argument might act as justification for a salary or a consultancy, from a societal perspective there is something fundamentally very wrong with that statement.

Moreover, while these measures may lead to improvements, I really do wonder at how enduring change will be when it is so correlated to monetary and market-based rewards. We all know that organisation/managerial fads are commonplace in contemporary workplaces.

I can say this because I am not driven by a profit imperative or self-interest. I simply want to play a role in helping society towards a better future by engaging and sharing my views.

That we have devolved to a society where it makes most sense for human beings to be good to each other, and within our broader interactions in the world (i.e. our impacts on the environment), if the market rewards it monetarily or in some other manner (typically related to societal status) is a consequence of the form of extreme capitalism that we have swung towards over the last half century.

This is at the heart of emotion and logic behind major changes, such as #thegreatresignation , we are seeing in this new era we have entered which I refer to as #thegreatreset .

People are tired of this world of transactional relationships as they crave authentic and deeper connection.

In the Great Reset era work-centric rhetoric and responses are seen as lacking and impotent.

Compassion is the only sustainable answer, and that is true in all settings 🙏

The irony is that those who understand and live that will reap the full rewards from engaging in society, including from capitalist markets as the underlying premise of the statement is correct, though they probably will not notice it since it is no longer their main goal.

For example, over many years I have closely observed one of the greatest capitalists ever in Warren Buffett and it is very clear to me that he was never driven to be powerful. Instead he was driven to excel at whatever he did, no doubt partly to provide security for he and his family, but also as a contribution to his society, and since he was especially good at capital allocation in a capitalist system he became wealthy almost as a byproduct of his passion and skill.

The short answer: if your motives are true, your actions will also be, and everything else will fall into the place it should be…

Brett Edgerton (Stay at home Dad at MacroEdgo) at LinkedIn published 3 August 2022

I have also written an essay entitled “The Great Reset Era At Work” which I published exclusively at LinkedIn.

I will still publish here at MacroEdgo, but please consider coming and following me at LinkedIn. I have a few more pieces in draft ready to be published there.


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© Copyright Brett Edgerton 2022

Redeeming Imposter

This is my attempt to increase the momentum in support of the Uluru Statement From The Heart especially amongst us non-First Nations Australians.

This past year I have opened my eyes and heart more than ever to the need for progress towards true reconciliation. As the Uluru Statement From The Heart website says, First Nations people make up only 3% of our population and progress will remain slow and prone to setbacks unless greater numbers of non-First Nations people openly and actively accept the beautiful and generous invitation extended to us.

The Uluru Statement From The Heart talks about Makaratta, the coming together after a struggle, which encompasses truth telling. In this spirit I have written my own statement of regret, and as is my own way to attempt to show leadership, I have chosen to share it below.

I would like all to consider writing their own statement of regret for themselves – it does not need to be published because I don’t know what good it would do for each and every one of us to confess our failings publicly.

I offer mine as much as anything as a guide to help others to accept our truths and complicity in wrong-doings.

The most important act any of us can do is honestly open our hearts to our truths – only then can we publicly affirm our acceptance of the generous gift within the Uluru Statement From The Heart.

I have guilt for my wrong doings, but I refuse to be silent in my guilt. As Mohammed Ali famously said “the man who views the world at 50 as he did at 20 has wasted 30 years of his life”.

I chose not to waste mine.

I ask all of my Australian friends and contacts to commit to the objectives in the Uluru Statement From The Heart and be guided by Makaratta to make peace and mend all our hearts and heal our nation.

Simply, and in the same way that much of the power in the statement Black Lives Matter is the absurdity in this day and age that it NEEDS to be stated – laid bare in statistics from life expectancy to incarceration rates including juvenile incarceration to deaths in custody – let’s all agree that there are no Australians amongst us MORE IMPORTANT than those who trace their ancestry here back 60,000+ years!

Write your own truth telling – share it if you wish – but the most important act is to do the work for and with yourself, and then publicly commit to supporting the Uluru Statement From The Heart by sharing this post or by writing your own declaration.

In unity with First Nations people and all people of good character,
Brett

Redeeming Imposter

Oh guilt.
I cannot let go of his words
“What happened to you?
When we first met [at 17]
You were more racist than me!”.

It is not him that I struggle to move beyond.
He is trivial and long forgotten.
Pruned.
It is me I struggle to forgive.

“I saw the world and it changed me”.

Never one to be outdone,
“I also saw the world.
It never changed me!”

My greatest shame is that I was no longer a child when he first knew me.
I was a lad.
A weak, confused fool.
A traumatised young man,
But still an adult.

I realised, however
That my guilt is no reason to stay silent.
Yes, I am an imposter.
I wish I wasn’t,
But I cannot deny it.

I was always an imposter.
As a lad my indigenous team mates never understood the prejudice I harboured.
If they did they never called me out.
Instead they showed me admiration I did not deserve from them.
And at uni a group of beautiful, vivacious young indigenous women took me under their wing.
They never called me out.
They showed me affection and acceptance that I did not deserve from them.

I never felt like a greater imposter than the night these beautiful, caring women honoured me by inviting to a kup murri
to feast on dugong and turtle
And other traditional foods
And share in their culture
At university.
I now understand just how special that was
And what an honour it was that they chose to share that with me.
I deeply regret that my immature heart was not properly open to that wonderful experience.

Racism is weird
Because the truth is that growing up
I did feel bonded with these people.
It was always more about what I perceived
Others would think of me.
That was my weak character.

These guys I always admired and felt connection with,
And they were often who I considered the coolest in the school yard
Or in the footie club
Chinny, Freddie, Jack and Johny Sav, Namok, and many more.
And at uni beautiful and funny Wilma,
Zelda smart and hard-working,
Nola’s wit could run rings around anyone.
All brave, funny and inspirational.
I don’t know why I allowed there to be barriers within me
Which hindered our connection.

In truth
I do know why I did –
Conditioning by my elders.

Racism is stupid because it continually calls for the disregarding of the observed obvious.
The continued judgement of a group
Or ‘type’
Of people irrespective of your own personal observation and experience.
Worse still,
The disregarding of your own feelings.

During my recent reading of bell hooks’ masterful
“The Will to Change: Men, masculinity, and love”
It was very clear to me that
Racist conditioning
Is an extension of the
“Psychic self-mutilation”,
The killing off of the emotional parts of ourselves,
The “first act of violence that patriarchy demands of males”,
In fact it is demanded of all of us.

Away from home for the first time,
I saw the shock in other young eyes
When I repeated the filth that my elders had said,
Unchallenged by others,
In front of me.
Truthfully I was just as shocked
Because the hurt was written on the faces
Of the Caucasian youth
Never before exposed
To such strong racist comments.

I was never a clever imposter.
I was gutless and afraid.
It was that cowardice which motivated my deception.
And if I got pulled up,
I would have shit myself.

I suspect it was the hearts of my indigenous friends
Which saw mine
And some innate wisdom in theirs told them to look past my failings
To see the potential that I possessed
To be a future ally.
An authentic and strong ally.

As a descendent of a pioneer of the sugarcane industry
I must acknowledge that I personally benefitted from your displacement from your custodial lands,
And it is further likely that I benefited from the exploitation of First Nations and other minoritised peoples.

For that I wish to extend my heartfelt apology.

My failings extend beyond these,
I know,
In ways that I now understand
And in ways that I am yet to.
I know that I have experienced privilege all my life
Which means that conversely,
Each and every one of you has faced obstacles that I did not.

I cannot change any of this now,
So I will always feel like an imposter.
It is better to feel like an imposter,
And use that to spur me on to be a better person,
Than be afraid to admit it to myself
Thereby continuing to be one.

I will always try to use that guilt
To maintain my humility
To be the best kind of ally.
An ally that listens
And is guided by your voice.

For over half of my life, now,
I have considered myself your ally.
I have listened to your voices
And advocated for you based on what I discerned from those voices.
I spoke up against elders and contemporaries when they criticised indigenous culture and practices.
Or when they have expressed overt racism.
And I have sort to role model to my sons a deep love and respect for all First Nations peoples,
Especially our own.

But I know I have been too passive.
Too inactive.

I offer this expression of regret
In the spirit of Makaratta
Described in the ‘Uluru Statement From The Heart’ as
“a process of conflict resolution, peacemaking and justice”.

It is my personal response to First Nations peoples’
“aspirations for a fair and truthful relationship with the people of Australia.”
It is my truth in the hope that I can make genuine connection with my lifelong friends
And with the culture
That I love
And am so proud has existed in you
The custodians of these lands
For
Over
Sixty
Thousand
Years!

For all of my life I have beared witness to
The “torment of [your] powerlessness”.
What is more,
As above makes clear,
I have, regretfully, been a party to
Perpetuating your powerlessness.
And even when I realised it,
I was far too passive.

I know
I, too, must
Get up
Stand up, and
Turn up.

And I will!

If we cannot treat right the people who have lived in this country for over 60,000 years,
Then really,
who can we do right by?


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© Copyright Brett Edgerton 2022

Let’s Talk Leadership

Obviously Morrison never had my vote by the time he reached the top job. Someone whose biggest claim on ‘leadership’ was ‘stopping the boats’ was never going to wash with me, and his performance as PM has only strengthened my disapproval of him especially through the pandemic (and worse, actually, as he is our first national leader of my generation and I am deeply disappointed he has represented us – especially men – in the way he has chosen to).

I gather many now think along these lines, too, but they are unsure of the alternatives.

I have voted informally in the past as a protest and my letter explaining my reasons for doing so – the lack of leadership, and race to the bottom politics of just trying to be the LEAST BAD option rather than the best – was read on “60 Minutes” over a decade ago. But I consider that after 2 decades of more of the same Clayton’s leaders, and emerging from a once in a century pandemic, we need to be more optimistic and hope for better.

Other forms of protest need to be deeply considered prior to voting – Palmer’s mob is good at telling people things that they are angry about or fear, but are extreme, create division, and worse still, offer no real answers.

Good quality independents are certainly worth close consideration as are the Greens.

My vote, however, will go towards assisting Anthony Albanese to become Prime Minister.

For one I am confident he will be a better leader than Morrison – the pandemic has taught us that things can always take a turn for the worse, but I have seen enough of both of them to be confident Albanese will be a much better leader.

I am certain that Albanese is a decent person. I can’t say the same of Morrison.

And yes, if by some chance the Morrisons invited me to some function I would go – especially if a friend and someone I admired deeply was being honoured – but I would not be there to give the Morrisons a photo op, and unlike them, I would be authentic and act true to my opinions. As did President Macron to Morrison, by the way.

I do recognise that just how good a leader Albanese will be is yet to be determined. But that is always the case. Annastacia Palaszczuk MP was not well known, often described as the ‘accidental’ Premier, but she has been a very good leader and by working closely with Jeanette Young has steered Queensland well through the pandemic.

Premier Palaszczcuk has proven herself to be a good strong leader, absent an aggressive, hard edge that a lot of male leaders have, and I believe that Albanese will be similar.

It would be remiss of me, however, to not be clear that I have been disappointed with some Labor PMs. While I consider Witlam (for societal reasons), and Hawke and Keating (for economic and societal reasons) the best leaders in my lifetime, recent Labor PMs have not met those same lofty standards.

Rudd proved inauthentic and a showman PM – not unlike Morrison – and was a great disappointment to me when he, together with Wayne Swan, made it clear to me personally at an early Community Cabinet meeting in Brisbane that ‘bringing back the fair go’ did not mean truly solving the cost of housing for young and vulnerable Australians. Rudd was deeply irritated with my question in the open forum, and Swan told me to my face I was dreaming if I thought anyone would end negative gearing.

Rudd did, however, lead well through the GFC unlike Morrison through the pandemic. When people saw through Rudd’s inauthenticity he was toppled, but Gillard never got out from the shadow cast by how she became PM.

Albanese, to my mind, may well become a very good Prime Minister – goodness knows we are due one! I expect he will be an open-minded, fair, non-micromanaging leader. My only advice to him is to maintain his authenticity and be real – e.g. minimise the use of ‘boofhead’ – we don’t need a ‘Hoges’ or ‘Strop’, we need someone prepared to step up and lead us to a place where our women and minoritised people feel safe, included and equal, and where our children can feel like they have a future in what has always been a harsh land but is getting harsher every year with the climate crisis. We also need to be constructive and generous members of the international community where our word and our good character can be depended upon, once again, as geopolitics becomes more challenging than it has been for decades.

Once again we have been lucky to escape these ‘lost decades’ without too much damage, but we cannot afford any more of the same – i.e. governments who spend all their energy on retaining power and have forgotten that it is their privilege to lead the nation to a better future.

For me Anthony Albanese has the potential to be the right leader for the times, and I will be very pleased if he is given a chance to remind Australians again what is authentic leadership so that we can once again trust it is possible in this nation.

More than that, actually – that we deserve good leadership, and should insist on nothing less!


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© Copyright Brett Edgerton 2022

What’s That Got To Do With COVID?: Funny you should ask

Lately I have noticed something that I find strange and, well troubling, really. I have noticed in a lot of open spaces around the city people gathered in white clothing, some wearing war paint (like many First Nations people traditionally did) or even like Georgians in England. They seemed to be enacting strange rituals bursting into loud cheers and chants every now and then, before all dispersing and spreading out in silent contemplation. At times some ran oddly with straightened arms – not like ‘river dancing’, but more like a windmill. Others seemed to have deformed legs which were thickened their full length – perhaps that is why some were rubbing and scratching intensely (even with rocks) at their groins, thighs, and backsides. Some of them appeared to be bleeding from the groin. I have seen short wooden spear-like things there, but what they throw at each other is a rounded, red rock which some fend off with a flattened, wooden stick. There seemed to be two people who they worshiped because at times suddenly everyone stood still and turned towards these two and yelled ‘how’s that!’ at them. I cannot decide whether these people are friendly to each other or not, or indeed hostile to others who also had gathered with me watching in great concern, but it all seems really strange and I am afraid it might spread and people I am friendly with might start to be taken into this emerging new culture.

Of course this is a parody of cricket, instantly recognisable to anyone who grew up in a commonwealth country when they observe the game being played. Others might not recognise the game, but would recognise it as a sport because it is clearly organised in a park, and so on. If you have ever tried to explain cricket to somebody entirely unfamiliar with it you will understand how strange it seems to them. I often marvel at how strange baseball appears, when I have no idea of what all the signals to each other mean.

What’s the purpose in this? Well imagine if I started explaining here a scientific process like conducting a PCR test. PCR stands for polymerase chain reaction and it amplifies a specific DNA (deoxyribonucleic acid) sequence, if present, exponentially to a point where it can be detected when a dye is included. It can be done also for the other type of nucleic acid, RNA (you guessed it, ribonucleic acid, just drop the ‘deoxy’ from DNA), by first doing a reverse transcription stage which is where a DNA analogue is made of the RNA sequence. This process of transcription occurs in all living cells in nature. Therefore a PCR test for RNA is called rt-PCR (reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction). Obviously the more cycles of exponential amplification in a PCR process, the greater the chances of detecting fewer and fewer copies of the DNA that was present in the original sample…

I am guessing anybody that was still reading after the cricket parody is now bored. Yep, me too. This is old science – it was being done routinely throughout the world well before I retired as a scientist almost 20 years ago.

I am not suggesting that any of this is difficult or tricky. The very great majority of people I have known in my life are more than capable of understanding the theory of it and then following the procedures to do a PCR themselves if they had an interest in it and/or they needed to. (Certainly if you understand how to play cricket you could!)

But most of us are unfamiliar with these endeavours. In fact most don’t understand what is DNA and RNA, other than seeing pictures of it resembling a giant spiral staircase. With no experience in working in laboratories, also, I am sure it all seems very odd and foreign to most.

Then if you add on top of that the major shock that everybody in humanity has received just being alive at this time and experiencing the pandemic, well it feels to everybody a confusing and challenging time.

I have noticed that these conspiracy theories that are being spread, and people who spread misinformation, pick up on little pieces – buzz words like PCR, cycles, etc – to make them seem knowledgeable, but what they say is disjointed and nonsensical to anybody with a background in this work.

However they gain attention because people are afraid of the uncertainty, and in many cases these conspiracists are telling people what they want to hear.

Who would not prefer to go back to our lives as normal after the disruption of the last 2 years?

I truly hope that people can read this and stand back to understand that it is OK that they do not understand all of this but it is still in their best interests, and in everyone’s best interest, to do the things recommended by the people who do. 

We can’t all be scientists – indeed, not all scientists can be virologists and immunologists. Neither can we all be doctors or nurses or forklift drivers or grocery assistants or stay at home parents. In fact, we can’t all be the same of anything, no matter how important the role, because we all need a broad range of things to be done for us by others to have the better lives that we have come to expect (which is why everyone craves ‘normal’).

The really important thing that this pandemic has shown us – and the learning that I hope outlasts all others – is that all of our roles, all of us are important! Even the people who are no longer ‘producing’, i.e. the elderly, and those with additional physical and/or mental challenges.

I understand very well that impacts on people have been great, and many may be frightened when deciding what is best for them and/or people they love. 

So, if it seems like trusting people on some of these things is a big step because you are confused and scared, can I suggest you sit down and write a list of how many people every day you trust with your life?

Here is my very quick list:

  • The builders of my home in which I sleep and live,
  • The people responsible for supplying electricity and water to my home,
  • The police who enforce property laws and general societal behavioural expectations on people who might otherwise think they should have the Freedom to enter my home and occupy it and do what they like,
  • The people involved in the production of the food that goes into my meals,
  • The factory workers that produced any electrical appliances that I used to make breakfast, lunch and dinner
  • If I travel by bus, the bus driver, and if I travel in my own car my mechanic and everybody else driving on the roads with me or impacting on the road system,
  • If I work in a high-rise in the city, or as a worker, the individuals who carry out maintenance on lifts and cooling systems, etc, or who make machinery and facilities safe,
  • My GP and all health care providers who help me to maintain my health,
  • etc, etc, etc

Over all of that lies the societal system in which I live which provides the governance and regulation that makes it so that all people (working for companies or acting on their own) who do all of the things that I depend on in my life (that I no longer have to do for myself) know that if they do not do things in a way which is safe to me then they will be held accountable.

That’s not to say anything is or ever well be perfect. That is why free speech is so important, and why I am grateful to live in a democracy. But I also accept that if I believe strongly in improvement to societal functioning then I need to convince others with logic and words rather than intimidation and aggression.

The point is this – if we did not trust the society in which we live, the people and the systems we have developed (with governance, regulation and enforcement), then we would have to do everything ourselves. We would have to move back to the middle ages and live on our own plots and become self-sufficient.

Although the pandemic was a great shock to us and many things still seem confusing and challenging because it is largely dependent on what the virus does, and that is up to nature and is not in our control (even if we can do things to aim for better outcomes), the truth is that our systems have been robust and protected us from the worst ravages of the pandemic.

Australians, especially, can be proud of how we have worked together and cared for each other to try to minimise the human loss from this natural disaster. I hope that we can continue to do that, recognising that the conspiracists are very much in a minority of their own making, and people can use the logic I show above to be less confused and more trusting for themselves and for others who they know are struggling.

Others who are embedded in the conspiracist culture of course will not be open to the simple logic herein. They have invested a lot of their identity and ego in their opinions, and we all can understand that they may feel vulnerable and embarrassed if they were to acknowledge that they allowed their fears to overcome rational logic. That’s OK, too.

Please let us all show each other the compassion and space that we all need to move on in our lives, to be curious, well-meaning and caring.

Take care and stay safe

Brett


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© Copyright Brett Edgerton 2022

Legendary Investor Jeremy Grantham Calls End Of ‘Super Bubble’ in US Asset Markets

I know that I have let the economics and investing element of my blog lapse terribly – I admit that it is an aspect of the ‘Great Reset’ era’s affect on me, along with some personal issues, that have seen me deprioritise thinking and writing about ‘money’ to be less than other more pressing issues, but it is also a reflection that I have found the market uninteresting to write about because my views have not changed significantly since I last wrote on the subject in May 2020 in “Uninvestable Markets” [Actually I did post on the topic 31 May 2021 – see below].

Jeremy Grantham’s latest writing for GMO – “Let The Wild Rumpus Begin (available by subscribing at GMO) and discussed by Bloomberg in “Jeremy Grantham Doubles Down on Crash Call, Says Selloff Has Started” – has encouraged me to say something on FaceBook so that I have (once again) done my part in putting important information in front of friends and more to consider, and for the them to do with it what they will.

My lack of writing on finance has, nonetheless, been on my mind and I have on occasions started drafting a new piece. Looking back through my drafting folder I can see that the last time I sat down and began drafting an ‘investment position update’ was in March 2021. I feel now is the right time to actually complete that, but for the moment here is my FB post:

Change of ‘pace’ – You may not have heard about it yet but the stock market had a bad week. That does not necessarily mean next week will be bad, but I have personally been positioning for the dramatic fall that this ‘legend’ of investing is talking about since the rapid bounce back after the COVID collapse.

I enjoy reading this type of research (Grantham is an ex-scientist, also, and so I am often struck by how similarly we think) but not everyone does.

To put it simply, because central banks have been printing money, and even moreso during COVID, the stock market has been run since the GFC like a casino that has set its odds to pay out. This is a big part of the escalation in inequality in society. It has flowed through into excesses in lots of places besides stockmarkets also – like property (in many countries), bonds (the reason for low interest rates), and other investables like art and precious stones.

And cryptocurrencies, of course.

I have been concerned for how the GFC was handled, and felt things were getting precarious 3 years ago. Around a year ago I wrote at MacroEdgo that I considered investment markets uninvestable because it was all essentially speculation based on one underlying assumption – central banks can and always will rescue markets no matter what.

Investing is buying based on a sound basis of future profitability.

Buying based on the hope that somebody will pay you more in the future for your asset is speculation, and it is extreme when you feel you cannot lose (because the system is ‘rigged’ in your favour).

I never offer financial advice but I suggest a little reading up this weekend, and I suggest a good start is my ‘manifesto‘ piece on MacroEdgo (accessible via the top menu) which explains a bit about ‘sequencing risk’ and how a major loss in investment value within 15 years of retirement can be very difficult to bounce back from. It also explains how ‘buy the dip’ does not always work out (as Grantham also explains).

Most of all consider investment strategies and whether current practices and market conditions are aligned with them.

The difficulty with investment bubbles is that because they are based on questionable logic, if any at all, it is fraught to apply logic to when it will end. Because bubbles come from extremes of optimism, it is hard to find or hear pessimists and it seems that bubbles are only ‘detected’ after they pop and the severe consequences are being felt. Yet we have had so many over the years that nobody can deny that they occur.

But the voices that are loudest when the bubble is in full swing are the people profiting most from it and have the most to lose (either directly from asset price falls or transactional costs from increased funds flow in bull markets – the worst conditions for them are markets where people have lost all interest because of lackluster returns). So they will apply all sorts of superficially appealing logic that the bull market will continue, and that others are doomsayers and those jealous that their risk aversion has caused them to miss the fun and gains in wealth! And, of course, those amateur ‘investors’ who have made so much in the bull market, and are inclined to believe it is due to their intelligence over luck, don’t want to believe that their fortunes are about turn, or risk missing more of the gains – the main US stockmarket increased by some measures by over a quarter last year from already very high levels.

This is pretty much the same story for all bubbles.

Actually, on second thoughts, after having read what I wrote in that draft dated 15 March 2021, almost a year ago now, it is of little use in a new piece so I will place it below for a little ‘extra flavour’:

I am sensitive to the fact that the Macro(economics) aspect of MacroEdgo has been relegated over the past 12 months. I am certain that the poignancy of the times are not lost on my readers, and that I have a voice that I feel needs to be heard on those more pressing issues. 


Moreover, the reality is that my opinions over the state of markets has not altered significantly since I wrote relevant pieces 6 months ago including my post “Uninvestable Markets” [  https://macroedgo.com/2020/05/21/uninvestable-markets/   ] published last May and making these key points:

– ….

The fact that science has outperformed my most wildly optimistic opinion on the provision of tools to combat the pandemic – producing vaccines in a timeframe which I dared to hope, when many were sceptical, but at an efficacy beyond what I dared to dream – has improved my views on the economic impacts of the pandemic. Given markets have not been pricing according to fundamentals, but rather on expectations of extraordinary support from central banks, the positive benefits to humanity from these interventions and then on the economy will likely have a less predictable effect on markets.

I have been very inactive in markets and with portfolio movements because my view on the markets has not altered. That has been fortunate as my desire to write on social and socioeconomic issues has never been greater than over the last year. I am now approaching my 100th post, a productivity rate that I never could have predicted when I launched MacroEdgo in October 2019.

Nonetheless, it has always been on my mind that I had not updated my “Current Positioning” page, including updating my annual investment performance to June 2020, since releasing my SMSF Position Update: April 2020 keeping the (gold) powder dry”. [https://macroedgo.com/current-positioning/smsf-positioning-april-2020-keeping-the-powder-gold-dry/]

I will not repeat the points I made there as it pre-dated the above-mentioned post, but I will refer at times to some specific points to compare and contrast with my actions and current views. For transparency I will spell out my portfolio activities to understand how the portfolio came to be positioned as it now is.

Firstly, on my Current Positioning page I have now included my year to June 2020 performance of ??%. I was tracking for better performance at the time that I wrote my April 2020 positioning update, but soon after that I decided to position for another market fall taking profits from pharma companies and selling some gold and placing it into reverse ETFs which would profit from a fall in market pricing. As I described in “Uninvestable Markets”, I saw then – and even more so now – that going long in the market was equivalent to gambling. So I had a choice of either doing nothing and staying in gold, or doing some short-term positioning trying to improve my investment performance. Once I decided to actively position for short-term movements I had to decide which side to be on, and I got my positioning wrong for the time.

In October I gave up on that positioning. Then in November, following good returns (exceptionally, or even too good from one in particular) I decided to liquidate my long holdings with my two preferred fund managers (taking unit trusts down to minimum holdings to keep open). When I saw that particular fund’s returns skyrocketing relative to the market which in itself was already strong, I decided things are probably just getting too stretched and I would rather by totally out of the market.

Unpublished draft of an investment update dated 15 March 2021

[Addendum 26 Jan 2022: Oops, I forgot that I posted a brief post on 31 May 2021 entitled “Spotting Shaving Cream Froth On Fluffy Snow Piled High In A Long Blizzard From 50 Feet” where I modified that opening sentence and repeated again my views on the ‘frothy’ uninvestable markets].

What a complete update will show is that I have continued at times to position for a sharp downturn in markets, trying to be nimble to minimise losses as the market moved from simply being a ‘bubble’ into a ‘super bubble’ according to Grantham. That was a possibility I also foresaw back in May 2020 in “Uninvestable Markets” when I said:

To be clear, I am not saying that I believe that stock market indices are likely to fall 90% from current prices. I am saying that the way that the stock market and central bankers are behaving, markets are about as likely to melt up from here as they are to fall to the March 23 [2020] lows or lower. However, if markets do melt up, then I would become more fearful of the consequences for our economies, nations and geopolitics.

I have been reasonably successful at minimising those positional losses and last Monday went short again with that same bearish ETF and will be adding to that bearish position on Monday (a market bounce would be expected before long before heading down even more sharply, if this is the collapse I expect, but staggering the position allows me to cushion losses if this is not quite the time while also capturing much of the fall until I begin taking profits).

Oh, and I still have a high weighting to gold and some silver – to cover both inflation and major market/societal dislocation – and I hope that I can manage to find a way to invest in value in developing Asia (ex-China, which is the problem for a private, small scale investor) described by Grantham, and also in agreement with one of my main investment themes, and if I had the resources to buy a quality apartment in Florence (as mentioned previously) with up to half of my investable asset value I would do that [I knew I mentioned this idea before, and it was here]…


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© Copyright Brett Edgerton 2022

Welcome 2022!

Like many of us, I am keen to adios 2021 and welcome in 2022 tonight. While my family had a successful year, especially our boys who we are so very proud of, the challenges we have had to face (around prejudice, bias, equity and inclusion) have tired us greatly, and that is before even considering COVID which impeded us from gaining ‘space’ to balance out those stressors and regenerate our energy.

I am, however, optimistic that 2022 will be better, as we each collectively decide how we will live knowing that we will frequently be exposed to the coronavirus which causes COVID due to the spread of the Omicron variant.

As I said in my previous post, Omicron might ultimately be seen as a positive step in the pandemic in the fullness of time, but right now that remains uncertain while the current challenges are considerable.

I realise that many Australians might find this optimism difficult to understand as right now we are experiencing a surge in cases unlike anything we have experienced before – e.g. the jump in cases in NSW reported today to 21,151 was breath-taking.

And some may be especially surprised as they have considered me risk averse since I led my family to significantly reduce risk from early February 2020 when I quickly realised the dangers we faced.

Over the last 2 years we have all had a huge Reset with accompanied changed behaviours and habits. Some of these are positive and I aim to maintain them, e.g. rarely eating out (before the pandemic it was often a quick fix brought on from exhaustion at these stressors, but ultimately it was costly, less healthy and even less rewarding since we are all excellent cooks).

Other habits like reduced social interaction, I have always been mindful, must be temporary risk-reduction measures, not enduring habits, and already after receiving vaccinations I have very intentionally set about readjusting these.

I knew immediately that all our lives had changed, and I knew that we would never be the same.

I also knew it would be an opportunity to effect positive change at the personal and societal levels, and I am determined to do that for myself and those I love.

Simply, it is time to start reliving life now that science has been applied to its fullest to provide the quickest and best vaccines in human history along with other tools to manage COVID.

I recently sat at a table with people who until the pandemic were all frequent overseas travelers, and when I asked who will be planning an overseas trip this year, nobody was even considering it.

I am planning 2 trips to Italy this year, to make up for lost time (our episode of House Hunters International s149 ep 8 is still available for streaming on 9Now).

We will be vaccinated as fully as possible taking boosters whenever recommended and available. And we will be applying appropriate risk-reduction measures at all times.

The tools that we have to protect us are incredible, and while science will keep on making improvements, they will be incremental from here on.

There is nothing left to wait for, and life is too precious to let it slip by without living it to the fullest.

If there is one thing 2020 taught us it is that things can change quickly so we cannot take for granted what we have.

In 2022, take care and stay safe, but also plan and be smart while you make the most of it.

With all my love,

I am for a united humanity!

Brett


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© Copyright Brett Edgerton 2021

Could Omicron bring the pandemic to an end?

Absolutely nobody can definitively answer this with robust reasoning based on what is known at this point in time, but IT IS a possibility.

We should act with caution but also with hope in our hearts.

Now some explanation, first an apposite anecdote.

My first job after my PhD was researching the viral cause of an epizootic (epidemic in lower order animals) disease in Australian prawn farms which had rapidly brought the industry to its knees with entire crops lost. Basic infection control was used once the disease recognised – emergency harvest the partially grown crop of prawns, kill the remainder of stock along with everything living in the ponds and disinfection of equipment with chlorine (ie eliminate the virus), and biosecurity to attempt to prevent reintroduction.

But there was an incomplete and confused picture of what was causing the disease – though by looking back through early cases I observed lesions which my boss had missed which clarified the picture at least to me (ie the main virus was present earlier than originally believed) – and given our limited range of tools to work with viruses in crustaceans, it really took considerable time to come up with tools to help farmers manage the disease.

Coincidentally, the main causative virus was related to the coronavirus family.

Before we really developed tools to help manage the disease in addition to the general biosecurity/infection control measures, however, something happened in the way the virus interacted with prawns in farms so that the disease became less severe and successful crops were achieved even when the virus was reintroduced (in stock or with other host crustaceans in the environment).In other words, nature solved the problem by facilitating a new equilibrium between the host and virus.

It is this same process that may be at work with Omicron. It is possible that Omicron has stumbled upon – remember, although scientist can talk about evolution in a way that it seems as if it occurs according to some plan but it is in fact random and based on probabilities of surviving to reproduce relative to environmental factors – a form that is highly efficient at spreading itself around while making proportionally fewer people really sick and dying.

AN IMPORTANT NOTE OF CAUTION on Omicron, it remains to be seen if that is true in all populations of people in all regions of the world!

HENCE THE NEED FOR CAUTION, especially given that it seems very clear that Omicron definitely is much more transmissible.

That caution must be heard in Australia where we have proportionally more older, vulnerable people and where we have not suffered the loss and disruption from previous major waves, so we have much less immunity from prior infection. We do, however, have high vaccination rates, though we are still to fully understand how effective will be the vaccines at reducing the likelihood of severe disease from Omicron.

IF Omicron is SIGNIFICANTLY LESS VIRULENT, then it’s emergence and rapid global spread is a major development as it will be similar to quickly vaccinating the whole world – INCLUDING the poor nations which WERE DENIED fair access to vaccines – though we should not lose sight that very sadly some will also be lost to Omicron.

The initial spread will stress the health care system, and especially our brave medical heroes who have delivered so compassionately for humanity, coming as it does in so many regions on the heals of major waves with Delta, but then we might all enjoy a respite as the virus then spreads like a serious cold/flu.

Of course, we will always be prone to flare-ups of different strains, just like for other viruses, but the widespread immunity from Omicron and vaccination might be enough to spare us from further major disruptions, especially since we are all inculcated with a higher level of hygienic understanding and habit than before.

It is also important at this point to recognise that all of this could have been much worse given that the original SARS virus had a mortality rate of 10% of people infected, and the similar MERS virus had a mortality rate of 40%. The best data from the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic showed a mortality rate of 1.25% in rich countries, with greater proportions of older people more susceptible to severe disease, and 0.25% in poor regions.

Clearly we must stay vigilant to the threat these bat and other mammal coronaviruses pose to us, just as my friend Dr Shi Zhengli long argued before COVID-19’s emergence.

Finally, as an Australian, and given I have not held back on the politics surrounding all of this, it is worth pointing out that if this is the course that the pandemic takes, then Messrs Morrison and Perrottet will have been incredibly lucky as their actions in insisting on lessening measures and/or resistance to increasing measures as Omicron began to spread like wildfire was incredibly reckless in my view. Although, being politicians, they will act as if they were all-knowing, and that their plan was successful, they were in fact as clueless as Morrison was in March 2020 when he told everyone to enjoy the opening round of the NRL and the Formula 1.

My hope is that Australians remember this truth.

And if the pandemic does not follow this course, and Omicron proves disruptive without a significant improvement after its wave, ie it is followed by yet another disruptive wave of COVID-19, well just remember everything we have learned and done together to help humanity to minimise loss and human impacts in this pandemic, and know that we can and will keep that up until we see off this threat and prepare for the next ones.

With all my love,

Happy holidays and Happy New Year (to those who observe the Gregorian calendar)

Take care and stay safe


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© Copyright Brett Edgerton 2021

Responsibility and Atonement


When do I as a man stand to account for my actions

Me alone?

When were my racist thoughts and actions mine to own and not that of my upbringing?

My father’s? My uncle’s?


For it was me, too, that laughed at Kevin Bloody Wilson when I was a teen

With his vile words that now make me want to cry

Especially when I play the video on YouTube for my sons in shock that such hurtful, racist lyrics

Were openly performed in our nation to the enjoyment of the privileged.


How must it have been to belong to the culture that existed on these lands for 60,000 years,

Belonged to this land!

To country

While the privileged gathered to listen to words that put them in their place?

Displaced


“At least we aint got F’n [them] liv’n next door to us!”


It was not so very long ago.


It was, however, my male mentors that teased me when I was 6 years of age

For sitting next to an Aboriginal girl in my year 2 class photo.

The hurt from those very early lessons cut deep.

What is it in those men who I looked up to so much that so irked them

How much hate must they have had in their hearts and from where does it come?

From repressed guilt?

Or somewhere even darker?


Yet, when we needed numbers for our sporting teams

When we wanted to benefit from their natural talents to aid us towards victory

We we were so gutless to act like they were our mates

All the while knowing that when we left the dressing sheds

We would be aloof and embarrassed to openly express our bond.


Just as I saw my Dad become whenever Arthur ‘claimed him’

When Arthur had the ‘audacity’ to talk to him in public like at the football on Sunday.

OK, perhaps he was loud, sometimes

But who was it that put the grog in his hands?

Was alcohol not one of the most powerful tools of dispossession wielded by the colonialist?

And how many colonialists are guilty of over indulging, themselves?


When many turn their thoughts at Christmas to their favourite carols and movies

Mine kept wandering back to listening with family and friends

To that shit sung by Kevin Racist Wilson


I don’t feel nostalgic for the Christmases of my youth.

I don’t feel happiness.

I feel ashamed.

And I feel determined to atone for my wrongs.


I can not stand by and allow people who say that society is now consumed with political correctness

Or wokeness

To go unchallenged

Because they can’t openly make racist jokes and laugh.

Because it is made clear that people are hurt and offended by their callous heartlessness.

Their arrogance and inhumanity.


Racism always was unacceptable. It always will be.

Let’s not be politically correct about that!


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© Copyright Brett Edgerton 2021